Second Guessing

Looking at the numbers, 12 of the 17 most populous states have had primaries or caucuses, so far. Senator Clinton has won two-thirds of those contests, some handily [states nos. 1 and 3, California and New York, some 56 million people]. Two of those states, including no. 4 [Florida] and no. 8 [Michigan] are non-factors [that's 28 million people, folks] and will effectively have no say in the candidate selection process. Both went for Clinton [again, by substantial margins.] True, Senator Obama has won a number of contests ... mainly in smaller states, southern states, a couple of majors ... Illinois, his home state. But the reality is that Senator Hillary Clinton, by an incredibly unfortunate convergence of events, will not be the nominee of the party despite having earned it.

Here is what is so odd: the coalition of states that Senator Obama has cobbled together to gain advantage over Senator Clinton closely resembles the amalgam of states that Bush used to defeat Kerry and Gore. Let's ignore New York and California, and focus on the south and the midwest. There might be some kind of irony there.

How liberal would Senator Obama be if he were elected president? I don't think we know based on his record as a senator. I think we'd be electing something of a tabla rasa, someone with neither a family tradition, or much of a relevant track record.

Here are some notes of interest about the junior Senator from Illinois: Both of Senator Obama's parents earned PhD's, his mother when she was about 50. Both his parents died young. His father was only 46, his mother was 52. He has at least 5 half-brothers and sisters [one on his mother's side, the rest on his father's side.] However, he essentially grew up as an only child.

I'm personally excited by this political season, saddened by Senator Clinton's seeming irreversible fall from popular grace, but encouraged by what seems to be a real increase in the number of people involved and engaged in politics. The rest of the race will be very interesting. Let's hope the press focuses on issues and not on tepid half-baked scandals and innuendos.